Monsoon Retreat May Begin by September 19 Amidst Heavy Rain in Several States

India’s 2026 southwest monsoon could enter its withdrawal phase this week, even as several parts of the country continue to face heavy to extremely heavy rainfall. Conditions are becoming favourable for the withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon from some parts of West Rajasthan around September 19, according to the latest weather outlook by India Meteorological Department (IMD).

The development would mark the beginning of the seasonal retreat of the monsoon from the country. However, the withdrawal is expected to start only from parts of West Rajasthan and should not be interpreted as the monsoon retreating from the whole of India from September 19.

At the same time, active weather systems are keeping rainfall intense across several regions. A low-pressure area that was earlier over southwest Madhya Pradesh was positioned over southeast Rajasthan and adjoining north Gujarat at 8.30 am on September 14.

The western end of the monsoon trough is currently south of its normal position, while its eastern end is close to normal. A trough also extends from the cyclonic circulation associated with the low-pressure area over southeast Rajasthan and north Gujarat towards Jharkhand across Madhya Pradesh and north Chhattisgarh.

Another upper-air cyclonic circulation is present over the northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Odisha and West Bengal coasts. A trough extends from South Interior Karnataka to the southwest Bay of Bengal, while a Western Disturbance is also influencing the northern parts of the country.

Gujarat faces extremely heavy rain

The most severe rainfall warning for September 14 is for Gujarat. Isolated extremely heavy rainfall is expected over Saurashtra and Kutch, while isolated very heavy rainfall is likely over the Gujarat Region.

A low to moderate flash flood risk has also been indicated for watersheds in Kutch, Morbi, Jamnagar, Devbhoomi Dwarka, Porbandar, Junagadh, Gir Somnath and Rajkot districts until 11.30 am on September 15.

Saurashtra and Kutch could continue to receive isolated heavy rainfall on September 15 after the extremely heavy spell on September 14.

Fishermen have been advised not to venture along and off the Gujarat coast until September 16. Warnings are also in place for parts of the Arabian Sea, including waters off the north Maharashtra and Comorin coasts on September 14, as well as the Somalia and southwest Arabian Sea region until September 19.

Maharashtra to see widespread rain in Konkan

In Maharashtra, Konkan and Goa are expected to receive fairly widespread to widespread rainfall from September 14 to 16. Madhya Maharashtra is likely to see isolated heavy rainfall on September 14.

Heavy rainfall was already recorded in both Konkan and Madhya Maharashtra during the 24 hours ending at 8.30 am on September 14.

Vidarbha is expected to receive fairly widespread rainfall on September 14 and 15. The forecast comes as the weather system over neighbouring Rajasthan and Gujarat continues to influence large parts of western and central India.

Rain to increase across parts of north India

West Rajasthan is expected to see isolated to scattered rainfall through September 18, shortly before conditions become favourable for the monsoon’s withdrawal from parts of the region around September 19.

Thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and gusty winds of 30-40 kmph, occasionally reaching 50 kmph, are possible over West Rajasthan from September 14 to 16.

East Rajasthan could receive isolated to scattered rainfall through September 20, with isolated heavy rainfall on September 14. Thunderstorms and gusty winds are also expected from September 14 to 17.

Rainfall activity is forecast to increase over Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Punjab, with fairly widespread to widespread rain likely on September 16 and 17. Isolated heavy rainfall is possible in the region from September 15 to 17.

Uttarakhand is likely to receive widespread rainfall on September 14, including isolated heavy spells. Scattered or isolated rain is forecast over Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh through September 20.

Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad could see fairly widespread to widespread rainfall between September 15 and 17. Gusty winds of 40-50 kmph, reaching up to 60 kmph, are possible on September 16 and 17.

Central India remains under active rain spell

West Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are likely to receive fairly widespread to widespread rainfall on September 14, with isolated heavy rain forecast over West Madhya Pradesh.

East Madhya Pradesh is expected to see isolated to scattered rainfall through September 20.

The region has already experienced intense rainfall. During the 24 hours ending on the morning of September 14, very heavy rainfall of 12-20 cm was recorded at isolated places in West Madhya Pradesh.

Heavy rain forecast across east and northeast India

Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim are expected to see another spell of intense rainfall, with isolated heavy rain on September 14, 15 and 17 and isolated very heavy rainfall on September 16.

Odisha is likely to receive isolated heavy rainfall on September 14 and again from September 18 to 20. Bihar could see isolated heavy rain on September 16 and 17.

Rainfall is also expected to strengthen across the Northeast. Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya are forecast to receive fairly widespread rainfall from September 15 to 17, with isolated heavy rainfall possible from September 15 to 18.

The Andaman and Nicobar Islands could experience isolated heavy rainfall between September 16 and 20, accompanied by winds of 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph. Fishermen warnings are in place for parts of the southeast and southwest Bay of Bengal between September 15 and 19 and over the Andaman Sea from September 16 to 19.

Southern states to remain wet

Rainfall is expected to remain widespread across Kerala and Mahe as well as Lakshadweep through September 20. Kerala could receive heavy rainfall from September 14 to 16 and again on September 19 and 20.

Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal could see isolated heavy rainfall throughout the September 14-20 period.

Telangana is forecast to receive heavy rainfall on September 14 and again on September 18 and 19. Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema could see heavy rainfall on September 19 and 20.

Very heavy rainfall recorded in past 24 hours

Several states have already reported substantial rainfall. Very heavy rainfall ranging between 12 cm and 20 cm was recorded at isolated locations in Haryana, Telangana and West Madhya Pradesh during the 24 hours ending at 8.30 am on September 14.

Heavy rainfall of 7-11 cm was recorded at isolated places across Konkan, East Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Saurashtra, Madhya Maharashtra, Gujarat Region, Uttarakhand, Tamil Nadu, Odisha and Assam.

Among the notable observations, Kondapak in Telangana recorded 15 cm of rainfall, while Chandigarh and Khilchipur in West Madhya Pradesh recorded 12 cm each. Silvasa in the Gujarat Region and Loharia in East Rajasthan received 11 cm each, while Phulbani in Odisha recorded 10 cm.

Delhi-NCR to see intermittent rain

Delhi-NCR is likely to experience intermittent light rain over the next four days. A partly cloudy sky with a spell of light rain or thunderstorm is expected during the afternoon or evening on September 14, with maximum temperatures between 33°C and 35°C.

Generally cloudy conditions and light rain are forecast for September 15, when temperatures are expected to range between a minimum of 23-25°C and a maximum of 32-34°C.

Light rain is also possible on September 16 and 17. Maximum temperatures are likely to remain around 33-35°C, while minimum temperatures could fall to 22-24°C by September 17.

The contrasting weather pattern means that even as the southwest monsoon approaches the beginning of its withdrawal from northwest India, active systems will continue to bring significant rainfall to western, northern, eastern and southern parts of the country over the coming days.