Why it is Not Raining in Pune Despite Monsoon Arrival on June 22?
Pune, June 28, 2026: It has been six days since the monsoon arrival in the city was declared by IMD on June 22, but Pune has not received any rain after the initial downpour on June 21-22, leaving many residents wondering why the city remains dry even during the peak monsoon activity duration.
Pune experienced its driest first half of June since 1958. Instead of the usual cooling seasonal showers, citizens have been facing an extended dry spell, high humidity, and clearing skies.
Why it is Not Raining in Pune
Dry Air Blocking Clouds: Hot, dry air currents blowing in from northwest India and West Asia have settled over Central India and Maharashtra. This atmospheric layer acts like a literal lid, suppressing convective activity and preventing clouds from building into heavy rain-bearing systems.
Weak Somali Jet: The Somali Jet, an important lower-level wind system that acts as the monsoon’s main supply line by pushing moisture from the Arabian Sea toward the Indian mainland, has been very weak this season so far.
Absence of Low-Pressure Systems: We have not witnessed the formation of any substantial low pressures systems in the Bay of Bengal. These low-pressure systems and depressions suck air from the Indian Peninsula, causing a vacuum, that in turn, sucks in moisture laden winds from the Arabian sea, bringing rains over Maharashtra.
Global Systems Out of Sync: The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a large pulse of rain-bearing clouds around the equator, moved away from the Indian Ocean in June. Besides, a developing El Niño has added global atmospheric pressure, lacking the balancing support of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which remains neutral.
Dwindling Dam Storage Levels
The extended dry spell has directly hit Pune’s drinking water stock in its surrounding reservoirs. Compared to the same period last year (as of late June), the water storage levels across crucial dams have drastically plummeted:
| Dam / Reservoir | 2026 Current Storage (%) | 2025 Storage (As of June 27) |
| Temghar | 0% | 32.1% |
| Lonavala | 0% | 28.2% |
| Mulshi | 9% | 56.2% |
| Warasgaon | 11.9% | 51.1% |
| Pawana | 16% | 49.4% |
| Panshet | 17.8% | 41.6% |
When Will the Rains Revive in Pune?
- Expert Analysis: Dr. Anupam Kashyapi, former Head of the Weather Forecasting Division at IMD Pune, emphasizes that a major breakthrough is on the horizon.
- The Early July Turnaround: Both the Extended Range Forecast (ERF) issued by the IMD and Multi-Regime Ensemble Forecasting (MRF) models point directly toward a powerful revival of the monsoon across Maharashtra, South Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha starting in early July.
- Extended Wet Spell: This much-needed revival is projected to sustain heavily into the second week of July.
- Crucial for Agriculture: Dr. Kashyapi notes that these upcoming July rains are absolutely essential and non-negotiable for the survival and sowing schedules of Kharif crops across the state.
With the science explaining the reason for Pune city not getting rain, the residents can only hope for an early revival of rains in the city to maintain its supply of drinking water and crops.
Article based on expert opinions and the analyses of the forecasts and articles written by leading meteorologists and met agencies. PuneNow does not claim expertise in weather analysis and forecasting.
