After nearly two weeks of frustrating inactivity, there is finally some good news for Maharashtra as the southwest monsoon appears set to regain momentum. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the monsoon is likely to resume its advance across the state from June 23, ending a prolonged pause that has lasted around 12 days.

Meteorologists say conditions are becoming increasingly favourable for the monsoon’s revival. However, it remains unclear whether the system will first make progress through western Maharashtra or enter via the Vidarbha region.

Delay Deepens Rainfall Deficit

The prolonged pause has significantly delayed the monsoon’s progress across Maharashtra. In Pune, the usual monsoon onset has already been pushed back by nearly 10 days. The absence of meaningful pre-monsoon showers has further worsened the situation, putting pressure on water reserves across several areas.

The delayed rains have also triggered administrative measures. In Pune, authorities have already shifted to an alternate-day water supply schedule to conserve drinking water supplies. Concerns have also been raised about the possible impact of global climate patterns, including El Niño-related conditions, which could affect rainfall distribution in parts of the country later in the season.

Conditions Turning Favourable

The IMD has stated that the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) remains stationary, passing through Harnai and Solapur among other locations. However, weather models indicate that atmospheric conditions are now becoming favourable for the monsoon to advance further into Maharashtra as well as parts of Telangana, Odisha, Jharkhand and Bihar around June 23.

Experts Point to Improving Conditions

Sharing his assessment on X, former Head of the Weather Forecasting Division at IMD Pune, Anupam Kashyapi, described the developing situation as a “ray of good hope” for Maharashtra. He noted that weather conditions are gradually becoming favourable for the monsoon to advance around June 23–24. However, he cautioned that most parts of Maharashtra, except Vidarbha, currently lack adequate cloud cover, limiting the chances of immediate widespread rainfall. Kashyapi also highlighted the seriousness of the delay, noting that all districts in the state are presently categorised as either “deficient” or “large deficient” in terms of rainfall.

In a post on X, K. S. Hosalikar, Scientist-G and former Head of Climate Research and Services at IMD Pune, pointed to encouraging signs emerging from the latest satellite observations. He said monsoon conditions are improving simultaneously over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, adding that weather models indicate a strong possibility of a complete revival of the monsoon system within the next two to three days.

While the outlook has improved considerably, experts advise people to continue using water carefully and keep an eye on official weather updates until rainfall becomes more widespread and consistent across the state.