War or Peace in 2026? Decoding a New Perspective on Pakistan’s Cycle of War and Peace with India and Why There May Be Cold Peace Ahead

By Vineet Gupta Founder & Managing Editor, PuneNow

History in South Asia does not just repeat itself; it is meticulously rehearsed in the halls of Rawalpindi. As we reach the close of 2025, the dust has finally settled on one of the most dangerous military standoffs in recent memory. From the horrific Pahalgam massacre in April to the thunderous retaliatory strikes of India’s Operation Sindoor in May, the sub-continent teetered on the brink.

But as the smoke clears, a familiar silhouette remains standing, now taller than ever. Field Marshal Asim Munir, the man who was supposed to retire as a four-star General in late 2025, has emerged as the country’s first-ever Chief of Defence Forces (CDF). To the casual observer, it looks like a promotion. To the discerning eye, it is the conclusion of a classic “extension-through-escalation” gambit.

The Rawalpindi Playbook: Crisis as a Career Tool

The pattern is backed by seven decades of military careerism. In Pakistan, when a Chief of Army Staff (COAS) nears the end of his tenure, the “India Card” is invariably pulled from the deck.

• The Ayub Precedent (1958/1965): The original architect of the five-star rank, Ayub Khan, used manufactured conflict to transition from soldier to sovereign.
• The Musharraf Maneuver (1999): Facing a civilian government seeking peace, Musharraf launched the Kargil War to justify a coup and a decade-long stay in power.
• The Bajwa Doctrine (2019): General Bajwa utilized the post-Pulwama/Balakot “regional security environment” to secure a three-year extension.

2025: The Year of the “Tenure Twist”

Asim Munir’s 2025 campaign followed this script with terrifying precision. In a speech, just a few days before Pahalgam terrorist attack, he had made inflammatory statements against India. By allowing inflammatory rhetoric to boil over into the tragic events of Pahalgam, and in the aftermath of India’s retaliatory Operation Sindoor, the military establishment created a “national emergency.”

The result? The swift passage of the 27th Constitutional Amendment in November 2025. This was not about national defense; it was about institutional capture. The amendment didn’t just give Munir a five-year term (notified on December 5, 2025); it granted him lifetime legal immunity and tri-service command over the Army, Navy, and Air Force. He has achieved what his predecessors only dreamed of: a monarchy in all but name, shielded from the courts and the constitution.

Why “Cold Peace” is Now Probable

The thesis for 2026 is simple: Peace is ahead because the General has won his promotion. Now that Field Marshal Munir has secured his unified command (CDF), his immunity, and his long-term tenure, he no longer needs the “heat” of the border. In fact, a “hot” border is now a liability to his new “monarchy.” To “indulge” in his new position, Munir needs a period of relative stability to manage the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) and enjoy the luxuries of the country’s most powerful office.

We are already seeing the signs: the focus of the Pakistani military has shifted toward the western border with Afghanistan, and Munir is increasingly positioning himself as a “regional statesman,” dealing directly with leaders like Donald Trump on global issues like the Gaza stabilization force.

War or Peace in 2026

For India, the “Cold Peace” of 2026 should be treated with strategic clarity. It is a tactical pause, not a change of heart. History tells us that the “India Card” is never discarded; it is merely placed back in the deck. The fire on the border has been dimmed because the feast has been served in Rawalpindi.

As the Managing Editor of PuneNow, I argue that we must remain vigilant. The peace we see ahead is a luxury enjoyed by a General whose personal position is secure. The moment that security is threatened, the cycle will begin again.