Monsoon 2024: Above normal monsoon expected in India due to La Niña Returning | APEC Climate Center

The Pacific-born El Niño phenomenon has had a significant impact on Indian weather last year. However as a La Niña is preparing to make a comeback, the ocean seems to have changed direction after punishing us with extreme heat, deficient rainfall, and other misfortunes. The initial monsoon predictions for India from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Center are surprisingly positive news for the impending rainy season. Estimates for monsoon 2024 indicate that this year will see above-average rainfall, particularly from July to September – a pleasant deviation from earlier El Niño worries.

Recent information from APEC’s ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) alert system indicates that by April, El Niño (warming Pacific waters) will give way to La Niña (cooling Pacific waters). During this time, the ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific decrease. These occurrences usually happen every three to five years, though they may happen over several years. Above all, higher rainfall in India is usually associated with a La Niña year, and the APEC is projecting just that for the monsoon season.

The region extending from eastern Africa to the Arabian Sea, India, the Bay of Bengal, and Indonesia, as well as the Caribbean Sea, the tropical North Atlantic, southern Australia, and the southern South Pacific, is expected to have an increased likelihood of above-normal rainfall. In their forecast for July to September, the APEC Climate Center stated that “a tendency for above-normal precipitation is expected for certain regions of East Asia and northern Australia.”

Moreover, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) concurs with this prediction. Because of La Niña, they forecast good monsoon rainfall after May. Since the southwest monsoon season brings in over 70% of the nation’s yearly rainfall, the quality of the rain during these months has a significant impact on the nation’s economy. Good rains are also essential for agricultural and drinking water replenishment.

There will be a cool, rainy monsoon in 2024, but not before extreme heatwaves in April and May. Due to the leftover impacts of El Niño, IMD predicts a scorching summer. Many parts of Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Maharashtra, and Odisha are expected to see higher heatwaves than usual.