India’s Population Hits 1.46 Billion as Fertility Rate Declines: UN Report Highlights Demographic Shift
India’s Population Growth Slows as Fertility Drops Below Replacement Level
India’s population is estimated to reach 1.46 billion in 2025, retaining its position as the world’s most populous nation, according to the UNFPA’s 2025 State of World Population (SOWP) Report, titled The Real Fertility Crisis. The report highlights a significant demographic shift, with India’s total fertility rate (TFR) declining to 1.9 births per woman, falling below the replacement level of 2.1.
This means Indian women, on average, are having fewer children than needed to sustain the current population size without migration. Despite this slowdown, India’s youth population remains substantial, with 24% aged 0-14, 17% in the 10-19 bracket, and 26% between 10-24 years. Meanwhile, 68% of Indians are of working age (15-64), presenting a potential demographic dividend—if supported by adequate employment and policies.
Aging Population and Rising Life Expectancy
India’s elderly population (65+) currently stands at 7%, a figure expected to rise as life expectancy improves. By 2025, life expectancy is projected to be 71 years for men and 74 for women. The report estimates India’s population will peak at 1.7 billion in about 40 years before declining.
From Population Panic to Reproductive Rights
The UNFPA report shifts focus from fears of overpopulation or underpopulation to unmet reproductive goals. It emphasizes “reproductive agency”—the ability to make free, informed choices about contraception, family planning, and childbirth.
Andrea M. Wojnar, UNFPA India Representative, stated: “India has made significant progress in lowering fertility rates—from nearly five children per woman in 1970 to about two today, thanks to improved education and reproductive healthcare.”
However, deep inequalities persist across states, castes, and income groups. While women today have more rights than previous generations, many still lack full control over their reproductive choices.
Historical Context: From High Fertility to Declining Birth Rates
In 1960, when India’s population was 436 million, women had an average of six children, with less than 25% using contraception and under 50% attending primary school (World Bank, 2020). Today, increased education, healthcare access, and women’s empowerment have driven fertility rates down.
The Path Forward: Economic Growth Through Reproductive Rights
The report positions India among middle-income nations undergoing rapid demographic change, with a population doubling time of 79 years. Wojnar stressed: “The real demographic dividend comes when everyone has the freedom to make informed reproductive choices.”
India now faces a critical opportunity to align reproductive rights with economic growth, ensuring a sustainable future for its 1.46 billion citizens.
