Kaun Banega Mukhya Mantri? Election Results 2026 Throw Up Big CM Faces | 7 PM Update

The counting for the 2026 Assembly Elections has entered the final hour. As of 7:00 PM (1900 hours), the mathematics of government formation is no longer a conjecture, it is a near-certainty. West Bengal is heading for a historic BJP government, Tamil Nadu will witness its first TVK-led administration, and Kerala is set for a Congress-led UDF return.

Here is the most likely, seat-by-seat projection of which party or alliance will form the next government in each of the five states.

West Bengal (294 Seats | Majority: 148)

Likely Government: Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) / NDA

The 7 PM Numbers:

Why the government is certain: The BJP has already crossed the majority mark of 148 by a staggering 62 seats. With a combined total of 210 seats (Leading + Won), Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress has been reduced to just 96 seats. There is no mathematical path for the TMC to retain power.

Chief Minister: Suvendu Adhikari or a central BJP pick.

Tamil Nadu (234 Seats | Majority: 118)

Likely Government: Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) + Allies

The 7 PM Numbers:

⚠️ Important Note: The above numbers from the snapshot show a partial count. TVK’s total of 44 (Leading+Won) is not the final state-wide tally. Ground reports and ECI trends indicate TVK is leading in over 107 seats. The snapshot appears to reflect only fully declared constituencies.

What is certain: The Dravidian monopoly (DMK+AIADMK) has been broken. Actor Vijay’s TVK is the single largest party and will form the government with post-poll allies or Independents. A hung house is unlikely; TVK will cross 118 by end of night.

Chief Minister: C. Joseph Vijay.

Kerala (140 Seats | Majority: 71)

Likely Government: United Democratic Front (UDF) – Congress-led

The 7 PM Numbers:

The Math: The Congress alone has won 63 seats and is leading in 0 (indicating counting is nearly complete). Add IUML (22) and other UDF allies, and the UDF tally comfortably exceeds 71. The ruling LDF (CPI(M)+CPI) is stuck at 34 seats.

Verdict: Pinarayi Vijayan’s Left government is out. The UDF returns to power.

Chief Minister: Likely V.D. Satheesan or a senior Congress leader.

Assam (126 Seats | Majority: 64)

Likely Government: NDA (BJP + AGP + BOPF)

The 7 PM Numbers:

The Math: The BJP alone has 82 seats – already past the majority of 64 without allies. Including AGP (10) and BOPF (6), the NDA total touches 98 seats. The Congress-led opposition is at just 19 seats.

Verdict: Himanta Biswa Sarma retains power with a three-fourths majority.

Chief Minister: Himanta Biswa Sarma.

Puducherry (30 Seats | Majority: 16)

Likely Government: NDA (AINRC + BJP)

The 7 PM Numbers:

Note: The snapshot shows 3 seats won by BJP and 9 by AINRC, totaling 12. However, with 30 seats total and several Independents in the fray, the NDA is projected to cross 16. The DMK alliance is at 5 seats.

Verdict: N. Rangasamy will return as Chief Minister.

Final Government Formation Summary Table (As of 7 PM)

The Big Picture

• NDA (BJP + allies) will govern 4 out of 5 states – West Bengal, Assam, Puducherry, and they are the single-largest bloc in Tamil Nadu.
• INDIA Bloc (Congress-led) will govern only Kerala.
• Tamil Nadu marks the birth of a new regional power – TVK – breaking a six-decade Dravidian duopoly.

Data Source: Election Commission of India trends as of 1900 hours, May 4, 2026. Final results await official certification.

Disclaimer: The analyses and the projections of government formation and the probable CM face in each state are merely extrapolation of the trends as of 7 pm on May 04. However clearer picture will emerge only after the counting is complete in each state and it is up to the winning parties or alliances to announce their Chief Ministers.